Mentor Sessions 093: Luke Gromen and Lyn Alden explain the 2026 global bond market crisis, private credit risk, yield curve control, and Bitcoin and gold as safe havens.
The global bond market is bleeding out in slow motion, and the real danger is buried in private credit that insurance companies can’t sell without going insolvent. Luke Gromen and Lyn Alden break down why the long end of the Treasury market is grinding higher, why Scott Bessent intervened before any visible crisis, and what happens when trillion-dollar balance sheets finally hit the sell button.
You’ll learn why China is the one nation conspicuously absent from the sovereign debt rout, how AI-driven deflation is reshaping Chinese manufacturing, and why Gromen argues the U.S. now faces a “Weimar gold reparations” problem with true interest expense at 105% of receipts. You’ll see why both guests believe rate hikes are no longer even a usable tool under fiscal dominance, how a Blackrock “one phone call” scenario could freeze $5 trillion in a crisis, and where Bitcoin and gold fit as bearer assets when markets get locked down. Alden makes the case for holding scarce assets and extra cash through the air pockets; Gromen explains why he trimmed Bitcoin and exactly when he’d aggressively buy it back.
⏱️ Timestamps:
0:00 – Intro
1:12 – Treasury Event or Broader Sovereign Debt Crisis
1:34 – Why China Avoids the Global Bond Rout
2:00 – Hyperscalers Emerge as New Bond Vigilantes
3:41 – Path Leading to Yield Curve Control
4:15 – Why Chinese 10-Year Yields Hit Global Lows
6:00 – AI Driving Deflation in Chinese Manufacturing
10:17 – Orderly Bond Market Grind vs Sensationalized Crash
13:43 – The Dog That Didn’t Bark in Bessent’s Move
14:38 – Silent Crisis Brewing in Private Credit
15:38 – Insurance Insolvency Risk Triggers Treasury Sales
19:01 – Liquidity Versus Solvency in Private Funds
27:44 – Will Warsh Raise Rates This Cycle
29:43 – True Interest Expense Hits 105% of Receipts
33:43 – Rate Hikes Fail Against Fiscal Dominance
35:50 – Crack Spreads, Diesel and Physical Bottlenecks
37:37 – Wall Street Awakening to Fiscal Dominance
40:12 – BlackRock’s $5 Trillion Lockdown Scenario
41:00 – Past the Point of No Return for Markets
45:47 – Non-Linear Reset Versus Slow Economic Spiral
50:19 – Physical Constraints in Beef and Refineries
54:05 – Gormen Adds Back Bitcoin After Selling
57:07 – Lyn Alden on Bitcoin and Gold Outlook
🔗 Links & Resources:
Lyn Alden:
Luke Gromen:
⚡Next Episode:
Brent Johnson:
⚡Previous Episodes:
Michael Sullivan:
Tom Luongo:
🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts
🐦 Follow on X:
🐦 Follow on X:
⚡Sovereign Sessions — AI, Privacy, and Bitcoin education:
⚡ POWERED by Abundant Mines: Fully managed Bitcoin mining. Learn more at
⚡ Sponsored by BITCOIN WELL: Best Place to BUY & SELL BITCOIN
⚡ Sponsored by Blockstream Jade: Easy, open-source Bitcoin-only cold storage. Get 10% off with code BTCSESSIONS at store.blockstream.com.
💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more.
👉 Visit btcmentor.io
#BTCSessions #Bitcoin #BTC #LukeGromen #LynAlden #BondMarket #Treasury #FederalReserve #InterestRates #YieldCurveControl #PrivateCredit #FiscalDominance #SovereignDebt #USDollar #Inflation #Gold #ChinaEconomy #Japan #MacroFinance #MacroEconomics #BitcoinEducation #BitcoinPodcast #BitcoinInterview #GlobalEconomy
source
I never considered any of this…I was thinking Bessent was going about this all wrong but he really doesn’t have a choice! This was super enlightening. Thank you
Screw rates, raise taxes so we get receipts where they should be so we can pay our bills. Cut defense, our military sucks big time…bring it home and disband it. We have nukes to protect our borders.Choke the rich, tax their wealth and their income. If this forces them to leave fine. I have had it with the game played to protect them. Break their hands, then their arms. Those of us who stay will pick up the pieces. We can't get poorer or we will start stealing and shooting…I'm done with the game that always falls me and falls on me.
These people glossing over the fact that deflation is even worse for a society then inflation due to manageability of the problem.
Also rate are still low historically speaking, the problem is the concentration of wealth. Assets are still too high because we stopped redistributing wealth by taxing the ultra rich and corporations like we did in the 50s until the 90s
Edit: to also add that the debt would be easily manageable by taxing the wealthy just like the 90s and nationalising healthcare and education like modern humane countries do
…"past the point of no return" more like "we've tried nothing and are out of ways to try" doom and gloom shillers with a right wing mentality.
One little nitpick – because I’ve appreciated the episode & what the guests discussed – Ukraine is not the reason oil costs are up. Russia’s oil is embargoed. It’s up b/c Trump started a war that shut down 20%+ of the world’s oil supply & can’t stop Iran from fucking up the supply.
Blaming a country fighting for its existence & fighting the war the way they absolutely need to is simplistic & really beneath the apparent intelligence of the guy.
Hey Luke. Instead of punishing Ukraine to lower fuel prices how about doing something about the dumb-ass war-mongers (Putin and Trump) that are the root cause of the problem?
3 "men" who are con artists paid to waste your time and keep you dumb
The west is all about how high can my house pump all about the gains. whocare if anyone lives in a 1m by 1m.
What a perv
Chinese citizens didn’t have a choice, that’s the difference between them and the west.
im always past the point of no return
All 3 of you in top form, awesome! 🎉❤
Is our debt in a hard currency if that currency boils down to the cost of health care, which could possibly turn deflationary?
The guy lost me at Ukraine comment. You get things then you don’t. And then what you don’t get makes what you get misplaced. This is the problem with economists. They, themselves live in bubbles.
Another WEDNESDAY…..Thats her new CANT STOP THIS TRAIN
I love ❤️ lynn
Luke Gromen and Lyn Alden
Bitcoin
The thing is … Lyn, et al, have been singing this song since absolutely forever.
Let the oil flow from our restored Venezuela energy partner
Luke and Lynn together is abut the best combo I think of. Thank for putting this together bud, and if you can get this road show back together regularly as we transition into the 2030s we'll all remain better off for it.
Raising rates would be a DNR order for the economy
28:00 to 33:00 is absolute gold
China gets Ai. We are smoking narrative rocks out west.
37:00 This is a dude with an adams apple. 😮
Excellent job, ready for part 2
Bush41/Clinton paid down the Vietnam/Reaganomics debt over twelve years to the point that the US stopped selling the 30-year bond and affordability returned. Granted, today's debt is bigger, but so is the economy, and in truth, so is the government's lot of low-hanging fruit.
Superb discussion.
Superb guests. ⭐️
Bring them back again.
Sorry, Hyundai are still pieces of shid
great episode. great guests.
That camera angle hides the Adams apple. One hour spent trying to spot it.
WOW
lets blame Ukraine for increased energy prices
F*cking moron
Fascinating interview. Two great minds, what i hear is buy Gold to sleep well. Bitcoin is not for me.
Was that Jamie Vardy conducting the interview?
Can they lock down the trading of bitcoin? I wonder.
If the BTC will crash in next 2-3 month, How about gold at the same time? Crash too?😮
when lyn says selling a treasury company to buy bitcoin, what is a treasury company ??