A♠Q♥ vs A♥A♣: Tom Dwan Shoved $1.15M at 6% and the Queen Still Came #poker



Odds checked with a poker equity calculator.
Narration and visuals made with AI tools.
#poker #pokermath #texasholdemTom Dwan lost a $2,353,500 pot with ace-queen against Paul Phua’s pocket aces, all in preflop, run once: Tom Dwan A♠Q♥ vs Paul Phua A♥A♣, Triton Super High Roller Jeju 2018 cash game (₩3M/6M/6M, ₩12M straddle).
Exact odds (eval7, every runout enumerated):
• Preflop: A♠Q♥ wins 6.3%, ties 1.3%, A♥A♣ wins 92.4% (all 1,712,304 boards).
• Flop 7♥ K♣ 4♦: Dwan wins 19 of 990 runouts (jack + ten for a straight = 16, or two of the three remaining queens = 3) = 1.9%.
• Turn 3♥: zero outs. 0 of 44 rivers win (even a heart gives Phua the ace-high flush).
• River Q♦: Dwan pairs his queen, but needed two. Pair of aces wins.
Phua was smiling through the whole hand. Dwan afterwards: “Gonna play short deck.”
Broadcast clip: Triton Poker (official YouTube), used briefly for commentary and analysis.
Sources: PokerNews · F5 Poker
Educational only, not gambling advice. Voiceover: synthetic (Kokoro TTS). Card and odds graphics are original animations (no AI images).
#poker #pokermath #tomdwan #tritonpoker #shorts

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1 Comment

  1. Dwan 3-bet A♠Q♥ from the big blind, then faced Phua's 4-bet to ₩320M from the straddle with about $1.15M behind. Against a straddler who 4-bets that big, is ace-queen ever a shove, or is it a fold?

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