A French channel, Les Traders Minimalistes, backtested a simplified Silver Bullet on EURUSD in 2023: first 5-minute fair value gap between 10 and 11 AM New York, limit entry at the gap, stop at its first candle, 2R target, flat at 4 PM. Their 100 trades: +6 R.
I ran the same rule from the same start (first trade 2023-01-05), every trade, with our costs (0.8 pip spread + 0.2 pip slippage): our first 100 trades, up to 2023-07-27, made -17.4 R. On 2023-06-27, where their test ended: 85 trades, -14.3 R.
This isn’t the same measurement as theirs: they backtested by eye on FX Replay, without our costs. Before costs, over 8 years (2018-2026), this version makes -0.008 R per trade on EURUSD: about zero, which is exactly what they concluded themselves. Thanks to them for publishing clear rules and their own test.
The trade shown: EURUSD, 1-min (5-min fair value gap), 2024-01-04, picked by a written rule (first stopped trade of 2024, no news day): -1.103 R (stop + spread + slippage).
Hypothetical, past results, estimated costs. Not financial advice. Full test on the channel.
Educational content only, not financial advice.
#shorts #EURUSD #backtest
source
To be clear: no one did anything wrong here. Their +6 R was a backtest by eye on FX Replay without our costs; ours counts every trade with spread and slippage. Before costs we both land near zero, which is what they concluded. Do you backtest by eye or with code? Tell me below. Full test in the linked video.