The 2026-27 El Niño remains on track to be exceptionally strong, according to the latest update. As of Sept. 10, the daily Niño 3.4 index was +2.42 degrees Celsius, while the National Weather Service’s three-month index was +1.8 degrees Celsius. The National Weather Service gives a 75% chance that the event will exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating to 1950. Seasonal models point to a potentially very wet California winter, especially from December through February. Higher ocean levels from El Niño and climate change could increase coastal flooding concerns. The forecast remains uncertain, but the update emphasizes preparation for potentially significant rain and storms.
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The Negative PDO has been impacting the US average precipitation and temperature for the past 28 years which has been mostly drier and hotter. The negative PDO will limit this El Nino. 82,83 and 97,98 cannot be compared to the Pacific temperatures as of now. Doesn't mean it will not rain, but not what some are saying.
well done and succinct. glad you mention climate change as a factor. Bout time we humans are starting to relize the impact we have had with mother earth. cheers
BEST explanation thank you!
The South Pacific Meridional Mode (SPMM) and negative (cold north/warm south) Atlantic Inter-Hemispheric Dipole have teamed up to overpower the otherwise unfavorable PDO phase as far as amplifying El Niño impacts so far in 2026 goes — and 1877 was the only other instance of that unique combination of El Niño, positive SPMM, and negative AIHD in the last 150 years. That is definitely creating a Blob 2.0 of sorts already, but, here's the key: it's south of the equator. That tends to reinforce an east-based signal that favors a wet winter instead of dampening it as the 2015 blob did.
It should be noted that the PDO didn't flip in 1982 until December and also didn't flip in 1877 until November. It's almost invariably the case that strong El Niño events tend to trigger PDO flips from cold to warm and not the other way around. The extreme negative NPGO (which is being misinterpreted by some individuals, including content creators, i.e. Travis, on this platform, as a cold blob/dampener) that we're seeing right now is an important PDO flip precursor to boot.
Summary: Here's what we think but we really don't know because we are just guessing
Definitely the best general video I’ve seen on this. The clarity and non hype approach is refreshing. Thank you.
Great pacing and editing.
In the united states we use fahrenheit
0 to 100
Where humans can survive
Another reason to stay up past bedtime.
You deserve more subscribers.
Abc10, what city is this report from?
Brenden, this is the best presentation I’ve seen on the topic. You got into the technical but explained it superbly. I learned new acronyms that are relevant. PDO was especially interesting given it may mitigate the issue. Thank you.
Thank you and glad to see the real heat gone for a while
windy and dry winter is in store for Southern California this El Nino in 2039/2040 like 2015-16
California is in a LOW frequency/ HIGH intensity event dynamic zone. Especially Southern California. Varying accounts of DROUGHTS for decades followed by deluging FLOODS & a cycle that just rinses & repeats across California & has continued to forever now. It’s been VERY dry across the state for a long time. Yes, climate change is here & we were in La Niña/ Negative PDO for a longgg time. However, all signs are pointing to historic El Niño & wet season! We SHOULD ALL prepare!! Now while it’s still dry. California is used to earthquakes & fires not floods necessarily but when they happen, they are Unprecedented. Get ready everyone!!!
Thank you for this ENSO outlook for California.I always watch for your weather forecasts and appreciate them very much!
The PDO is definitely not in a negative phase and have no clue where you got information that would back that up. Recreational fishermen are catching Blue Fin tuna off the Northern California coast, that only happens when the PDO is in a positive phase like in 2016.
We are not in a negative phase.
PNW will be dry 😢
The UN issued a report that this El Nino will peak around mid February. But it will not begin to dissipate back towards neutral until the end of 2027.
Winter is gonna bet super wet… followed by possibly the largest hottest drought period California has seen in decades.
A cold, windy and dry winter is in store for Southern California this winter.
Except for one tiny problem…
The PDO is in negative phase.
This El Nino will blow itself out, and all these 'experts' are going to look silly – but won't ever mention that they got it wrong.
El Nino wanted Amtrak Conductor to looks for El Nino forward
It will be drier winter like 2015-16
Please tell me this fall and winter in California will be cooler than normal. Fed up with this heat.
Another excellent presentation, Brenden, you 'splained it well.
Trippin ¿
Thanks for sharing your creativity.
Snow?
When did the weather change from Fahrenheit to Celsius in America? Who in America knows the difference?
im forcasting a super normal winter in so cal. 10” of rain.
then im going to save this vid and come back may 1 2027 and gloat about being right.
You earned a new subscriber.
I can t wait for the next upload.
should have enough water saved to fill the hydrants.
hey bruh,,,, ,Why don't you do a weather show that shows what happens at the end of an ice age. bet ya wont..
Besides the entire rest of our country… evidently God hates California as well. Maybe the retards there will try to capture some of this water so they will have some. Doubtful. Hey how's that train thing coming along?😂 Dumb AF.
That s an easy thumbs up.
This channel is outstanding It deserves more views.