Also known as “How Seth Moulton misread the 2024 election and destroyed his career as a result.”
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I'm sure it's just my own biases, but I feel like the people who went fleeing toward the right because of a perceived vibe shift were always more to the right than they let on, and seized on an excuse to hew closer to their own ideals. I'm loathe to bite RINO/purity culture talking points, but IMO if you leapt at the first chance you had to throw trans kids under the bus while still calling yourself a Democrat then you probably never supported them in the first place and were shamed into it because you found it more expedient to espouse liberal/left talking points.
The only area where it kind of felt like there was a vibe shift was on the internet and a lot of that was due to russian bots flooding comment sections.
Consistently the smartest, most engaging, and most levelheaded political commentary around. Thank you.
It’s interesting so many people took 2024 as a cultural shift when there were so many out of the norm factors about it. Even the party that won misread it as that despite winning on a more basic economic message
I am constantly gobsmacked that in a nation with our history and current reality, where we have elected exactly one non white and zero female presidents in our history and we are marinated in misogyny and racism from birth, that anyone thought Trump eking out a victory against a Black woman was a sign of his massive popularity. I personally think it's absolutely delightful and a sign of massive cultural shift in my lifetime that the race was so close. I remember how they treated Shirley Chisholm. It wasn't that long ago.
The voters of 2024 failed because they fundamentally did not understand one of the most forgotten things in life: It can always get worse. Biden was able to tackle the economy woes of COVID and transform it to the best in the world, but it was "not enough" for the beltway media, social media pundits on the right AND the left and the RW propagandists ran with it to great effect. Sprinkle in that ubiquitous Trump anti-Trans ad ("she with them, etc.") and it was enough to get him to the finish line. It should be a reminder to the voters that the noise that you see on your social media feed, and the (bad) takes seen on the CNNs/FOXs/Sunday morning shows are not all in all reality, that all that is somewhat manufactured and misleading and should be given less weight in the overall calculation during the election. If just enough of the voters looked beyond all that and really looked at the country and the world, and understand what is actually "bad" and "good" about the economy/foreign policy/culturally that maybe we wouldn't be in the situation we are in now.
Calling Sophie Cunningham mid is pretty generous of you.
Dana Perino went to my high school. As a girl that played sports at that high school, it enrages me to see her play up the misogyny for her employer and suggest women shouldn’t have leagues.
She was supposed to be an example for us. Now I’m embarrassed to share a hometown. Shame on her.
People are seeing this war on Trans women for what it is: a farce. Turns out, MAGA doesn’t understand women’s sports, sports, women and especially trans women and obviously, science. And MAGA also doesn’t the economy.
4:09 Oh dear, look at where a certain intractable Middle Eastern conflict ranks on that chart. Not like you would get that impression from social media. Seems like it is a very small contingent of Americans who are very loud and persistent. (Or non-Americans (ahem) or foreign agents spreading division (ahem ahem)).
"Play to the center" sounds like it's been the conclusion of the dems since basically 1976. Seriously, how many returns can we diminish? The most successful presidential campaign of the Democratic party was 2008, which was not what the DNC wanted to do, they wanted Hillary. They got it in 2016. Look at those results.
I'm a trans woman and even I don't think about trans people as much as some of these commentators. It's insane that we get as much screentime as we do. I blame porn.
Also, great use of The Apartment! I had this on another screen and I had to come back cus I was like "I know that! What's it from??"
To people paying attention, Seth Moulton has been an asshole since he first got to congress and was mad he wasn't getting more attention. The issue with Moulton isn't that he was a 'centrist,' the issue is that he's overly self-important and stands for nothing but promoting himself. If the issue was just being centrist or not, Representative Lynch wouldn't have won his primary during the same election.
"Kamala is for they/them…"
Trump: economy bad , ill make it worse
Harris: we’re recovering let’s stay the course
Morons: trump said economy bad, vote for him
My theory for a long time has been that there's really just a small handful of really annoying and loud people who complain about trans people constantly and make it SEEM like it's must more widespread of an opinion than it really is, but the average person really just doesn't care and mostly just wants to be able to afford groceries
The very idea that fundamental human rights should depend on vibes is some serious MAGA bat 💩 . Brilliant analysis as always, Mr. Bouie.
Anyone who didn’t do everything they could to keep him out of power after January 6th will never be forgiven.
I believe you're right. The average voter, whatever their party affiliation, just doesn't take politics all that seriously. They didn't believe the rhetoric they were hearing from either side, and voted to punish the side in power for inflation. They also weren't interested in understanding why we had inflation either. And so the world is paying for the ignorance and stupidity of the average American.
My hot take is that Gaza impacted this election more than attacks on trans people. Which is not to say that it would have flipped the election, but i know way more people complaining about AIPAC and Israel than I know people complaining about trans rights.
If voters didn’t take the threat of Project 2025 seriously in 2024, that’s further proof of the stupidity and laziness of the American electorate. A large percentage of white Americans also refuse to accept that responsibility for their loss of economic and cultural power lies with the white, male patriarchy — not with Black and brown people. Immigrants aren't the problem immigration policy is, and we know that. I also believe the Biden administration could have easily predicted the rise of inflation during the COVID pandemic and gotten ahead of it with better messaging. When millions of Americans are sitting at home, flush with cash for the first time in their lives, the first thing they want to do is buy a new car or a flat-screen TV. All Biden had to do was go on the airwaves and counsel Americans to wait until global supply chains recovered. Tell them why prices are rising, as well as penalize companies for predatory pricing. (That is the job of the American president and the federal government.) But no American president has the nerve to say “don’t buy right now” — and look at where that got us. Americans are always looking for leaders to counsel them on how to weather any large-scale storm, which is part of why administrative agencies exist: to combat those storms.The biggest mistake in electing Biden was choosing someone too old and unable to effectively communicate with the public, who was slow to step aside when it became clear he should. It’s not hard to see how we ended up in this 40-year Republican takeover of government, helped along by a Democratic Party that has sat on its hands the whole time.
Now broadcast in a foreign language
Israelites in the desert for 40 years
MA voter here. I have been proud to have Markey as a senator here traditionally (very good on net neutrality and stuff like that), though like most people I would prefer he retire and mentor his replacement. But not Moulton; IDK if I even believe if he’s actually anti trans, it’s more that he’s clearly a spineless political opportunist who can serve as a weathermane and not represent me in the senate. Much of this race came down to a state party rule that only held it to 2 candidates on the primary ballot (this rule should be changed! It limits possibilities and our choices.)
Seth also pissed me off by having an insane amount of money on these attack ads from “Advance Progress” PAC (with Mr Connolly talking about how he and Markey were in politics 50 years ago blah blah) – Mr Bouie, if you wonder where your ad revenue comes from, I think I saw that ad on your channel at least a dozen times. I tried to look up the org online but basically find nothing. Honestly attacking Markey with dark money ads very much rallied me to defend him. Extra points for “advance progress” for being a dark money org for a centrist to attack a progressive in the traditional doublespeak fashion.
Anyways, I’d rather have a non corrupt old man who is past age of reasonable age of retirement than a soulless power hungry weathervane who takes money from Palantir employees and anyone else who wants to purchase him.
Nice video though. Keep being the voice of sanity. Thanks
I think the people who talk about politics for a living live on the internet. OP is one of the rare people who live on the internet but hasn't had a lobotomy about cultural issues.
Why is this even an issue? Because fascists have used it as a part of their information war.
Conservative con artists can't use abortion as a social scare issue anymore so they have pivoted to trans issues. Neither threaten the economic interests of the elite.
Its the economy stupid. Trump lied about lowering prices, and he lied about not getting us into any more forever wars.
I appreciate the even handed take on this.
Trans women and girls have taken so much harm from the so-called vibe shift. Can you all see now why we need better discrimination protections? Is any politician going to recognize the massive harms that Skrmetti and BPJ have done to us? The dehumanization campaign in the media? We are not your scapegoats.
You know, I am sympathetic to this argument, and even probably agree with it (there being no vibe shift), but this example is quite bad. If seth was the incumbent, you would have an argument, but he wasn't. He was trying to primary someone. And massachusett's is literally top 4 bluest states in the nation.
So no, I don't think a more conservative democrat losing in massachusetts is indicative of the "vibe shift" being wrong, and I would think this would be obvious to a political pundit whose job is to think about this stuff.
Excellent, Jamelle, excellent
"Green room politics" is a perfect saying. Perfect. Use it again.
What troubles me, though, is that we voted Trump you bro office not once, but twice. What does that say about us as a country?
What 2024 taught me is that the American public refuses to learn or look at anything beyond the surface level. If people still don’t understand what’s happening now then I don’t see a way out of this. I’m truly scared and I don’t want to keep living this nightmare because I won’t have the courage to do what’s right when the chips are down.
its troubling to me that a politician wouldn't be a strong opinion holder. an awkward way of saying that we need people in leadership who have strong positions that aren't subject to whims. moulton clearly is not someone with a core. and that is a problem. i'd rather have a politician running for office who has firm beliefs (that I can clearly understand) and reject – like bigotry. I don't like someone who you have no idea where they really stand. moulton is just another suit. so glad he got hammered.
Yeah, I live in a conservative part of Maine. The MAGA folks out here usually are homophobic and transphobic, but the yard signs they put up in 2024 never mentioned that stuff. The most common one I saw was literally "TRUMP = LOW PRICES, KAMALA = HIGH PRICES". It should have been obvious even in 2024 what the "vibe shift" was actually about.
It was about inflation, through a thick lens of racism
focusing inflation as the only significant factor is delusional. if you are completely beholden to the economic fluctuations in your fight against such a disgusting politician like trump then that means you have failed to build a lasting base of support.
How many people without down syndrome can play in the down syndrome category before it becomes a problem?
How many 25 year olds in the under 13s before it becomes a problem?
The most comprehensive scientific study of inclusion of males in the female category, the one that supported the World Rugby Trans Inclusion Policy showed definitively that the males (Trans Women) retained their advantage. The policy concluded for safety and fairness it was not appropriate to include makes in the female category.
The assertion that there is no evidence thaf males do not maintain advantage if they prefer to participate in the female category is a lie. It is deceptive propaganda circulated by gender identity activists.
And the credulous commentators who recite need to have a look at themselves.