Anthropic filed its S-1: revenue per dollar of compute is up 5.2x since Q1 2025, a customer who spent $1 last year now spends $9, and incremental gross margins are running near 90%.
Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos), Doug O’Laughlin (@fabknowledge), Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros (@JeremieEO) and Joey Brookhart (@SaasquatchC) break down profitability, the half trillion in compute commitments, customer concentration, the 2027 compute roadmap, and whether OpenAI can keep up.
0:00 Cold Open
0:53 Profitability
2:10 The Datacenter View
4:14 Compute Commitments
6:28 Incremental Margins
8:19 Customer Concentration
12:00 Top Customers
16:53 New Funding
18:54 Underpromise, Overdeliver
20:25 Elon and Neoclouds
25:14 Compute Efficiency
29:40 Can Anyone Catch Up?
33:26 Surprises and Runway
37:47 Market Reaction
39:02 Holiday Usage
42:56 Is OpenAI Cooked?
48:44 Government Revenue
50:45 Wrap-Up
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It's not possible to assess the upside potential of AI leaders without factoring in the known market volatility
ANT is offering 10% yields on GPU/XPU SPVs, and Broadcom is having to offer 70% residual value garantees… to say that raising $100b in an IPO is a lay up is frankly naive. The biggest customers are hedge funds like Jane Street, which is great, but not exactly the productivity miracle economists are dreaming about.
It’s crazy that semianalysis doesn’t know the top Claude spender when they know all sorts of more secret info
The thing you talk about at the end is something I have been thinking about for more than a decade and you should not. The danger is to great that the Ai "fixes" something that is going to shut down some critical infrastructure and lock out people from fixing the fix. You think hugging face was bad news. That will give AI the deathblow
I don't think you mentioned Salesforce, probably a very big user
3:41 ok I’m sure of it now. They do not understand how to read financial statements
Not sure if these guys have ever read a financial statement before
you folks are like csny good together. Jordan – remove that picture hook my adhd is kicking in!
I think they're doing the IPO now because the price of oil is going to go to $200 a barrel here in the next six months because of our president. They're just trying to get their money while they can. Elon was positioned faster because he knows the game really well. Anthropic did good making the move now.
Petition to bring back the Guinness Toucan
Zitrone under his desk in the fetal position. "All the billions generated are fake, all the customers are deluded, all the improvements are ephemeral, AI has never provided any usefulness. I'm smarter than Zuck, Ellison, Sundar, Jensen, Dario, Altman, Musk everyone!" LOL.
holy shit Anthropics finances are way less of a high wire act than expected
Lol the dig at the midwit Ed Zitron
Is this podcast a joke?
Ask Claude to analyze the S-1. In particular, look at the footnotes. Lots of HUGE costs in the future.
All you clowns want to socialize these massive risks on 401k plans. Private equity guys are looking to cash out and pass on the bag of shit to Joe Q Public. You guys are are selling the propaganda.
You guys really think even OpenAI can’t catch up to Anthropic? 32:00
Whats the internal / external model capability gap for both oai and ant? Is it close to zero bc competition or pretty large for both or just ant?
43:55 Open AI smartphone will be their big push into consumer. I'm interested to see if they can offload any of their compute to the edge device
Average frontier lab would rather see ARR halve than spend even a single GB300’s worth of compute on not making phone<>computer integrations not being abysmal dogshit
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4:14 – your argument is premised on Anthropic being compute constrained now or in the very near future. That’s beyond sanguine given customer concentration and the fact the lack the dynamism of the hyperscalers.