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🟣 [Overtime] Even more Q&A
If SpaceX no longer want Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon, why won’t NASA just buy them for themselves? What would a perfect space station look like? What is being done to improve the deep space network? And in Q&A+, finally, a Lagrange Point question.
00:00 Intro
00:27 [@kairon156] What would a perfect space station look like?
08:13 [@endigo2007] Can NASA buy the remaining Falcon 9’s and operate them to send Dragon to ISS?
10:57 [@musicover5] Is there work being done to increase the bandwidth of the deep space network?
15:09 Final thoughts
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Crew 1 flew 10 years and 89 launches after the first Falcon launch. If Starship goes operational by the end of 2027, and operates at the intended launch cadence it can easily accumulate 89 flights by 2030. If that was enough testing to allow crew to fly on Falcon it should be enough to allow crew to fly on Starship. And if Starship isn't crew-rated in 2030 then SpaceX can continue to fly Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon. That they intend to phase out Crew Dragon doesn't mean that they are in any way compelled to do so. And aspirationally every operational Starship launch will recover the orbiter except a few specialized missions such as HLS where the orbiter remains in space indefinitely. So it won't be a matter of separately testing a "capsule" that goes on top of a booster. The recovery technology will by that time be far better proven than for any previous crewed system.
I think your assumption that it takes 10 years to make a ship crew safe is completely wrong. I don't think you've grasped the advance that a rapidly reuseable launch system like starship actually means. If you can rapidly manufacture relatively inexpensive ships, and then rapidly reuse them, then testing is exponentially faster than the traditional legacy space launch capabilities. You can do in more in 2 years in terms of verifying safety than the shuttle system ever accomplished and because of rapid testing and iterative improvement, you can both create and verify much safer vehicles (starship and its derivatives).
The human body faces severe vulnerabilities in microgravity, alongside exposure to dangerous cosmic radiation. While artificial gravity aims to mitigate these effects, it distinctively differs from rotational gravity, which causes many biological hazards.
I get the point of sunsetting Falcon 9, but Dragon could surely be launched on another system. 🤔
NASA should have its own space stations just like the navy has its own ships
We´ve probably gotten the most valuable information that we wanted from the ISS by now, and are planning for a moon base… Which will require the ISS funding to be redirected… And I don't think the Russians will be invited to participate, this time. Solar sail to keep objects in orbit is an interesting idea. Crew Dragon might be needed for a Mars mission… The reliability alone means we shouldn't retire it entirely.
Why do you say if starship has flown for 10 years and proved it’s safe? Space shuttle 135 missions with the loss of 2. If Spacex’s plan are even remotely close to what they actually do we are going to be seeing numbers of flights in excess of that within the next few years.
Are they secretly developing a Falcon 10? A wider, taller version.
I don't think there is any reason to think that Starship will ever be as reliable as the Falcon.
We always have the TEMU space station…
Another good episode, Fraser Cain. Thank you in particular for underscoring the importance of generating artificial gravity to ensure the viability of habitats in space to accommodate humans on a permanent or long-term basis.
Space X / Elon say a LOT of things about ambitious time frames. We won’t be left without a reliable way to Orbit. Either Starship will be ready or Dragon will continue.
I’ve got a question about the expansion of the universe that I’d love to hear your thoughts on.
If you could travel at the speed of light in one direction for an incredibly long time, could the expansion of the universe eventually make it impossible for you to return to your starting point, even if you turned around and travelled back at the speed of light?
And does the direction you travel make any difference? For example, could you travel in a direction that somehow works against the expansion of space, or does the universe expand in such a way that no matter which direction you go, you could eventually reach a point where getting back is impossible?
Basically, can the expansion of space eventually outrun even light itself when it comes to returning home?
This is the dumbest take ever. Starship will make Falcon 9 obsolete. That's the point. Starship can do more for cheaper. No one is going to buy Falcon 9 when they can get a ride on Starship for 10% of the cost per ride.
Falcon is safer? Duh, Starship is still in iterative development.
What if any advantages are there for using the SLS system? It seems the dragon could accomplish the same thing as far as a trip to the moon and not be nearly as costly.
6:57 I’d like less “what if” and “maybe” and more “most likely”.
Maiden Falcon 9 launch: June 2010
First CRS mission: October 2012
First successful landing of booster: December 2015
First crewed flight: May 2020.
So two years until the first cargo launch and eight years until the first crewed flight.
First Starship launch: April 2023
First successful landing of booster stage: October 2024
Prospective decommisionning of Falcon 9: 2030, so seven years after its maiden launch.
Given that SpaceX learns constantly I'd say it's not too far fetched that Starship will be safe to operate crewed flights in four years. And besides that: If the ISS is deorbited what is the most urgent use of crewed flights apart from the moon? If the answer is research in microgravity then I see just another argument for Starship since its crew version will make such endeavors easy. (Yes, there's currently no crew version in sight, but SpaceX is developing one for the moon missions anyways.)
I think one of the Gemini twin missions tried, they attached a tether to both space craft, backed away. They couldn't get the setup to work properly, gave up quickly. Never tried again.
The purpose of the commercial program is to avoid stagnation. The fact that the government will hold on to something that works rather than grow is the problem that commercial program is solving. Also watch “For All Mandkind” to see what a non-stagnating space program would have looked like.
yes, we know already. without gravity, muscles atrophy, bone loss increases. no one who goes to Mars for an extended time, will be ever be able to return to earth, unless artificial gravity exists. SpaceX doesn’t want to keep producing the ancient design of the Falcon9, they are moving on.. They are building 2 StarShip launch pads at KSC, and they have that Lousiani deal about to start, they would be spread way to thin to keep going with Falcon 9, StarShip will be human certified in time.
It's too complex for nasa to figure out.They are behind by 30 years and wouldn't know what to do with it or even how… their false sense of pride. No way can they admit the private sector kicked their over budget buddy's (ULA) ass 20 times over on a dollar per dollar basis. And lastly, they don't want it because it doesn't throw away enough on each launch. They don't know how to budget in efficiency.
the problem with a solar sail, sails work on boats because of a keel, without it you can’t control how the force is expressed as momentum/direction, you would need some sort of space keel
Spacex will do an Adobe, and cut services and force a subscription model so NASA pays monthly regardless of use. this is another reason why private companies should not be providing the hardware for rocketry etc.
Universe Today? Many years ago, I was subscribed to your e-mail newsletter. When I saw the name, I knew who you were.
About SpaceX. I'm not surprised. All anyone talks about is Starship. How great it will be, what it will do, etc. I feel it's a giant pig-in-a-poke. I agree with you, ten years, yeah with the way it's being developed it's going to take that long. Don't get me going about their HLS system. To me, it's just par for the course with SpaceX.
Crew dragon isn't retiring in 2030, sounds like Elon time 😂 more like 2040 or 2045. That or they want to charge more money.
Lets spend on hte 3 children who die every minute of preventable diseases first, then fix the planet, when that us done, lets go into space. spend on robotic probes – good idea; but the ego trip of sending humans is just that.
US will be copying from China's Tiangong. Just watch..
why have oligarchs bought the space technology, now governments at the mercy of psychopathic businessmen. ( don't include Trumps USA as 'the west')
Destroy harmony, hope, unity, destiny, sunrise, star shine. Don’t preserve it as a monument. Erase it and replace with greed and domination.
Personally, it show full on commercial space has pitfalls. Look at space suit replacement efforts. Commercial companies were backing out. I am believer in having provision. Buy couple Dragon2 Crew and Cargo craft each and tooling and hire people to support them as well as dozen Falcon 9 Block 5s and use them until replacement finally is found. People buy cars and buy a replacement, leasing/ getting service especially from a company who may not see the value of keeping a legacy system around with no true continuity of service is disastrous at best. It takes years to replace manned spCe system. I am not saying there nothing out there for NASA , but I'd like backup just incase one doesn't show up anytime soon either.
It works. Repeatedly. Smells like Politics..
Maybe Elon should buy Nasa
man… Vast's space station is so beautiful!
But I tell ya: we cannot imagine what crazily beautiful things we will build in 100 years in space!!
Artificial gravity – build this using the space station perhaps https://youtu.be/CyqPvjUyTnw?si=yaYq9OE4lJFLleE6
When ISS is deorbited, we leave the only precense of humans in space to the Chinese. A permanent moon base is just pipe dreams and no, there's no economics in private earth orbit space stations neither.
You know, maybe we SHOULDN'T be putting the fate of all future space exploration in the hands of crazy billionaires.
1) A private space station has economic problems that are pretty large still; they are probably over an order of magnitude when you consider the costs of maintenance and liability. Consider SpaceX has not announced a consumer space station, and SpaceX has made some pretty far-out announcements. 2) If making a rotational artificial gravity system, we know how large the minimum radius and rotational speed must be to get to near 1G and avoid sickness from excessive angular acceleration, and it's immense; perhaps 1 km diameter and 0.5 rpm, which is about 50 mph. This structure has to be maneuverable or have some other means to avoid space debris. 2) Retiring the Dragon capsule is probably an economic call by SpaceX and one that they will get solved by NASA if necessary.
Its so funny that Musk is putting the shotgun in SpaceX mouth with the discontinuation of Falcon 9.
Rocketlab will smoothly step in and takeover the one thing Musk business actually succeeded at making money at. Albeit with huge subsidies and taxpayer dollars
Halo orbit was probably the most stupid idea of the decade and a disaster waiting to happen. I fully agree with Zubrin here.
If the goal was to test human spaceflight beyond Van Allen belts, let's do station at GEO or GTO. It would be much cheaper and more accessible (launch windows multiple times per day vs every 14 days). From the safety point ov view much better as well (instant return opportunities vs – again – every 14 days when the orbit aligns with the Earth).
Add to this a tax on delta vee that the station would impose on any spacecraft heading for the Moon…
This is why commercialisation is not the greatest idea right now; NASA becomes subject to the whims of unreliable people. Commercialisation makes sense once there is a clear economic reason i.e. a profit motive via some service or activity which non-government actors will pay for.
At the moment what's actually happening is that we're just funding the billionaires and their little toys and if they throw a tantrum or decide to do something else, NASA is screwed.
Well, Starliner landed safely. So, evidence is that the 2 crew members would have returned safely on Starliner.
ISS will still be in orbit for 10 more years.
Purchasing the hardware makes no sense with SpaceX on the verge of creating incredibly cheap transport to space with Starship. Everything going forward should be designed specifically to dock, interact, and disengage with Starships. The amount they can carry to orbit is years, maybe decades ahead of everybody else, and that makes using them much cheaper as a space taxi. There have even been discussions of chaining 8 or more Starships together and using them as a modified space station, which would allow for easy swapping of modules/configurations, and would make cleaning much easier. Buying the small Falcon 9 and flying it themselves would be literally running backwards.
There is no world where Crew-Dragon is retired before Crew-Starship comes online. SpaceX is only putting out the 2030 timeline of retirement because it's their expectation Starship will be carrying crew by then. If it takes 10 years before Starship carries crew, there is a 100% chance Falcon9 with Crew-Dragon will still be flying, even if it's for that reason alone. But think about it. If Starship truly is flying 100's of times a year by 2030, it's very likely it will have easily proven reliable enough for a crew variant. And thus it's reasonable to expect it will be flying by then.
“Starship isn’t safe”, 4 years from now is a lot of launches to prove that statement wrong.
Im pretty sure by 2030 only china will have a manned presence in low earth orbit. America will still be dreaming about but not committing to a moon base
08:13 Crewed Dreamchaser? Are they out of the game?
Or an X whathever crewed variant.
The "shuttle" principle is sound, accommodating the "extra requirements" was what sank it